The Front Range in Colorado has been very active this week with severe storms. In fact, there have been several severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood watches and warnings issued since Wednesday of this week.
These storms were initiated from a surge of moisture and energy from remnants of Hurricane Andres meeting up with a shortwave trough and surface pressure system located over eastern Colorado (as seen in the WPC surface analysis below).
The expedited moisture influx has resulted in very high rainfall rates and amounts for eastern Colorado and neighboring states. The mass curve plot below demonstrates just how intense this storm was, with nearly all of the precipitation falling within about 5-hours.
From a climatological standpoint, this event has been determined to be fairly rare. In the Front Range of Colorado alone, the maximum 3-hour Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) for yesterday’s rainfall was around 164 years (see MetStorm’s ARI map below). In frequency terms, a storm of this magnitude for this area and duration has only a 0.61% chance of happening in any given year.
With more rain and thunderstorms in the forecast, the flood threat continues through the weekend. Make sure to check back to see any updates and more of our near real-time precipitation analyses from MetStorm!
Please note that the data presented here is preliminary and will be updated with final information as all data is available. If you are interested in this product, or any other product from our MetStorm™ Precipitation Analysis tool, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org or through our contacts page at http://metstat.com/contact-us/.
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